May 12, 2019

By Friday, May 10's close the S&P 500 Dive chart had reached a low only seen three times since January 2018 (see below). This took place February 5, 2018; October 10, 2018; and March 15, 2019. The first two ushered in sizable drops while the later was a minor wiggle on...

January 7, 2019

This blog was originally published July 16, 2018. It was updated 1/6/2019.

I can hear Kenny Loggins singing “This is It” in the background. The long-expected bear market is here. Yep, that creaking noise you hear behind you is the door closing on the nine and a half yea...

January 6, 2019

Act Two, Part 1.

Mention bear markets and to many of us it conjures images of crashes such as the Black Monday Crash of October 1987 or its more famous cousin, the Black Tuesday Crash of 1927. The reality, however, is quite different. Major bear markets, those declining...

January 6, 2019

Having established the trend in Act Two, Part 1, let us now look at the detailed data behind the charts in that blog. One thing to keep in mind is that the market from 1962 to today was measured using S&P 500 data from Finance.Yahoo.com. This data has daily highs and l...

May 14, 2018

"It seems combining value, quality and momentum can marginally outperform the market. Is there a chance investors may do even better? Indeed, if they also take into account the timing of buys and sales."

April 26, 2018

..."sales growth was lower than it was prior to major market drops in 1997, 2000, and 2007 or the follow-up recessionary years 2001 and 2008..."slowing auto and building project demand serve as confirmation of the shortfall since this is precisely what one wo...

April 9, 2018

"We may be floundering around the -10% mark longer but it is still a pretty good correlation"..to the 2000 market.. "The coming week will be critical to see if the -2.5% peak mentioned in Still On Script was that climax peak or not."

April 9, 2018

Our present situation reminds me of Alan Greenspan’s equally resolute Fed back in 2007. Much like today’s Fed, Greenspan’s had embarked on a money tightening spree from June 2004 to June 2006. The Fed Funds and discount rates were increased from 1% and 2%, respectively...

March 26, 2018

The market always seems to find a way to follow the historical script. Just two weeks ago it seemed poised to go off script as it inched just above the -2.6% mark from its January 26 high...Who would have thought that international trade would come along to nudge the m...

March 26, 2018

A look back at the previous six major bear markets that went through a correction before toping, showed that all but one dove steadily to the bottom of their correction period and then recovered sharply. The only notable exception was the 2000 market whose S&P 500 perf...

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